AK-Gov: Palinmania

In case you haven’t heard yet, John McCain’s out-of-the-box Vice-Presidential pick is Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska. Now let me start by saying: I’m baffled, because her lack of experience (two years as governor of one of the nation’s smallest, and, let’s face it, most unusual states… and prior to that, mayor of a town of about 7,000) dramatically undercuts his ability to hit Obama on the not-ready-to-lead charge.

On top of that, there’s the mini-scandal associated with Trooper-gate, which revealed a rather vindictive and not so squeaky-clean Palin going after the head trooper who wouldn’t fire her screw-up ex-brother-in-law. There’s also the not-so-small matter of Alaska having only 3 electoral votes, although it does legitimately qualify as a swing state this year. Maybe after the Dem convention, the Republicans have realized the not-ready-to-lead thing just isn’t going to work on Obama, and, despite the pleasant whiff of unity coming out of Denver, are banking on peeling off a few points’ worth of PUMAs who may be attracted to a female pick (and Palin is one of the few prominent Republican women conservative enough that she won’t irritate the base).

Anyway, let’s step away from the Presidential politics; this is Swing State Project, after all! Here’s the hypothetical: what if, for some reason, McCain/Palin wins? The next person in line is Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. If the current vote count in the AK-AL race holds, it looks like Parnell might have his schedule free to take over as governor after all.

On the other hand, what if Parnell manages to squeak past Don Young in the recount (and since the person in charge of administering Alaskan elections is none other than Parnell, don’t rule it out!), and then makes it past Ethan Berkowitz in the general? We discussed this very possibility, remote as it seemed at the time, in our VP Vacancy Speculation thread a few months ago. It turns out that the Alaska constitution and election statutes don’t specify who the #3 person in the line of succession is, but an Attorney General opinion Alaska law allows the governor to designate a third person. The currently designated person is Republican Attorney General Talis Colberg.

There’s one more possibility: what if Parnell wins AK-AL, but put in the position of being able to choose between being governor or representative, chooses the power of governor over the potential longevity of representative? Then, as far as I can tell, we’d be in immediate special election territory for the vacant House seat.

Your thoughts?

UPDATE: In this video (from several weeks ago), Palin admits that she doesn’t really know what the VP does every day. Try doing that at your next job interview!

58 thoughts on “AK-Gov: Palinmania”

  1. I’m sure that’s what most average Americans are thinking.  Once they realize the extent of her experience is being  Governor for less than 2 years after being Mayor of an obscure small town before that I doubt many will take the pick as anything more than pandering.

    And as for drawing women to McCain?  Doubt it.  Once they realize she’s foaming at the mouth anti-choice I doubt she’ll play well with women.

  2. is what this does to the AK-Sen, AK-AL, and AK-Pres races.

    I’m hoping that this doesn’t damage our chances at AK-Sen and AK-AL, at least.

    However, we had better start beating Palin over the head with Troopergate, and reminding people how this is yet another scandal.

  3. McCain won’t give up the “experience” argument after choosing Palin any more that Obama gave up the “change” argument after choosing Biden.  Both sides will just claim that the other undermined their own campaign with their VP selection, then voters will remember that they really don’t care about the #2 spot and the focus will go back to the top of the tickets, like always.

  4. She could really exceed expectations, or she could be a bit of a misfire. It was a gamble, for sure, but when you’re John McCain’t, you can’t play it safe this year.

    In another sense, this was probably the only pick (Lieberman aside) that could have completely taken the oxygen out of the buzz surrounding Barack’s amazing speech last night — and it has.

  5. I might be making things up (or my 12-year-old mind back then was playing tricks on me), but didn’t W. begin to leak in the fall of 2000 a few of the big names for his potential cabinet?  Or at least in a wink/nudge fashion?  I seem to remember his campaign letting it be known that Colin Powell would be Sec of State, during the final stretch of the campaign.

    Is it possible that Obama’s campaign might do something similar to garner support and excite different demographics, such as leaking Napolitano as AG, especially to counter Palin and assure folks that some of our very talented Democratic women will be in very powerful positions in an Obama administration?  Not sure which other Democratic women are in the running for the Big Four (State, Defense, AG, Treasury), maybe Claudia Kennedy as SecDef, perhaps?  Richardson probably has State, though.  I really don’t know, but I was curious if this would be something that actually has a chance to happen.

    I’m not as worried about this pick as I was this morning waking up for class (now mainly just concerned about the consequences this will have on Begich and Berkowitz), but thought possibly leaking a few names would be something that might help.

  7. is…why not K.B. Hutchison?  Why Palin instead of Hutchison?

    (I mean, I can see why not Ridge, Romney, Huckabee, or Lieberman.  Even if I add in the consideration of gender (which I do NOT like to do), I can understand why not Pawlenty.  But why Palin, of all people?)

  8. Didn’t I hear some GOP talking heads blast Obama for vacationing in that far off place called Hawaii recently?  Then McCain picks a running mate from Alaska and the same folks keep their mouth shut?    

  9. and Biden becomes VP and Palin goes back to being Gov.

    But what isn’t moot is: what will the impact (if any) be on the AK House & Senate races- potentially greatly increased AK voter turnout in Nov.?

    She had a near 90% approval rating as Gov. (tho not sure what it is now post-Troopergate investigation)

  10. As a friend pointed out, it is pretty cool to have candidates from Alaska and Hawaii running this year.  Especially as both states are celebrating their 50th anniversaries next year.

  11. I don’t think this will help Stevens or Young much as they are down double digits.  Besides, whatever happens in his trial will determine Stevens’ outcome.  If he is convicted of any counts, he’d done regardless of Palin’s performance.

    But this does make us want Young to win even more.  I think Palin would help her #2 Parnell.  That being said, I have to believe that with this, Parnell would not push any recount so he could help run the state and perhaps become governor if Palin were to win in November.  

  13. Man, its gonna be painful. I’m not saying she’s dumb or anything, but Biden has been debating national issues for years. I know Palin is bound to say some of the wall shit. How is she even going to appear on the pundit shows?

  14. I just saw Palin on the evening news, and she turns out to be quite a good down-to-earth speaker.

    Just a warning for us not to underestimate her by any means.

  15. Pros: She brings youth and energy to McCain’s much highlighted “oldness” and reinforces the original image that made McCain’s political career: that of a reformer.

    Cons: Not sure if a female running mate sits well with a party dominated by older white men. And her limited experience (2 years in the Governor’s office) completely destroys McCain’s argument of experience against Obama’s lack of.

    Honestly, I’m really surprised at all the political hoopla going on in Alaska, of all places. If you told me 4 years ago that Ted Stevens and Don Young were on their way to defeat, the Alaska GOP was undergoing an internal change, Democrats would have a shot at outnumbering the GOP in the Congressional Delegation, and that the state’s Governor would become the party’s VP nominee, I would have laughed in your face.

  16. A great ad from the Obama camp could center around Palin’s current scandal. Name a bunch of corrupt politicians then go along the liens that we need change away from corrupt politicization.  

  18. But as well as the impact of Palin on AK-AL and AK-Sen, you might consider the effect of AK-AL and AK-Sen on her.

    Young and Stevens are corrupt to the bone, but also prodigiously experienced. And Young at least doesn’t get on with her. And he likes to shoot his mouth off. Calling Mike Stark!

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